Month: October 2016 (page 2 of 2)

Pre 2nd Debate Video Leak Odds Update

Trump Billy Bush Arianne Zucker

I wanted to wait until after the second Presidential debate to do an odds update, but in light of what occurred this weekend, it is imperative that I update my readers now.  Two things happened: one, Wikileaks released a series of transcripts Hillary Clinton gave at paid speeches, notably to Wall Street banks, and two, a video was released from 2005, with both video and audio of a private conversation between Trump and Billy Bush, a TV host, discussing Trump’s interactions with women as a result of being a celebrity.  Given the timing of the Wikileaks release, I initially presumed that the video was leaked to push that story out of the headlines, but I had no idea that the impact of either one could be so important to the oddsmakers.

Unsurprisingly, the election odds were on the move, but I had no idea the move could be this significant.  A lot of the release amounts to what I believe were already well known facts about both candidates, but the impact on the odds was obviously very lopsided.  In light of the significance of the odds being repriced, it is time to revisit Betfair, ahead of the second debate, and see how the odds have moved as a result of the leaks.

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Even Bigger Conflicts, Of Rational Self-Interest

brainard-bill-clinton

Clinton: well, because Hillary is a candidate, I would be happy to offer an opinion if she weren’t a candidate. But I think it would be wrong to do so because she is. However, I will say this. Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard, whom I know, several others—these are really smart people and they’ll do what they think is right. And i think the political emphasis is overrated because I think whatever happens is if that they think is right economically will be manageable economically at this point. But it’s been a perplexing time. There was a very long tail on this financial crash that explains most of the road rage in the American electorate and much around the world. And so, we just finally had one good year-on-year report on rising per capita income. 5.2 percent. And family incomes. About 2.5, I think. So what they’ll do is they’ll look at that in the long-term numbers, and they’ll see whether they could actually if they’ve got longer term growth, would it actually help to tick up interest just a tad, or should they leave it where it is because in spite of the growth figure, the jobs figures are not still robustly growing so much. They got more data than i do. I trust them to make the decision.

Source:  Read Bill Clinton’s full interview about the Fed, his foundation and US jobs  |  CNBC

Credit goes to the readers – you guys are a really astute bunch.  After my recent article detailing Janet Yellen’s response to a query on Lael Brainard’s conflicts of interest at the Fed was picked up by ZeroHedge, someone questioned why I had not included Bill’s commentary on Brainard and Yellen in the above interview with CNBC.  I hadn’t even seen the interview in the first place.  And, after looking closely at Bill’s interview… I’m kicking myself for not seeing it and including anything on his commentary.  The conflicts of interest at the Fed clearly go beyond prior employment and campaign contributions.

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Evaluating Google Trends, Candidate Likability, and Virtue Signaling

Hillary vs. Trump Slogan Trend

First off, I find it hilarious that “Hillary for prison shirt” is getting more searches than “Hillary bumper sticker”. The fact that Hillary can hardly get people to organically search for her merchandise should be a pretty telling sign that the general population really has no support for Hillary Clinton. The one thing that we know for certain is that not many people are buying her shit.

Trump may be destroying Hillary in merchandise and slogan searches, but what other search terms could help indicate a Trump landslide? Before I move on to that, I just want you to take a look at the line graph for slogan searches. Hillary’s low energy, “I’m with Her” slogan has barely seen a blip of growth compared to Make America Great Again.

Source:  Google Trends Indicate Trump Landslide  |  Regated

Whether you hate him or love him, the fever pitch surrounding Trump’s Presidential campaign has been absolutely phenomenal.  If you take a look at Regated’s article, they point out many other Google search trends that show the astounding interest in Trump’s campaign.  And the interest is highest in pro-Trump searches, not from the haters.  Just as importantly, they show a shocking lack of interest in the campaign of Hillary Clinton, with her highest search parameter being lower than Trump’s 3rd highest, and her 2nd highest search parameter being “Hillary for prison”.  And all of this is in spite of her high probability of winning the election, even after her perceived success among oddsmakers following the first presidential debate.

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Conflicts Of Interest

yellen

Fed Governor Lael Brainard has donated to Clinton’s campaign and is widely viewed as a potential Clinton pick for Treasury secretary. Yellen hesitated and then demurred when Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey asked whether Brainard would have a conflict of interest if she were indeed in talks with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign about a position. The election takes place Nov. 8.

“I would have to consult my counsel, I’m not aware that that’s a conflict,” Yellen said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, while rejecting Garrett’s suggestion that the U.S. central bank has a political bias.

Source:  Fed Politics in Spotlight as Yellen Cornered by Lawmaker  |  Bloomberg

Imagine how higher management would feel about you reacting in the same situation.  Goldman has been known to lay off its employees for even donating to the Trump campaign.  So a similar situation would be you, an employee of a firm, donating to a political campaign, and later getting a promotion as a result of that donation.

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