The Burning Platform recently posted a Michael Krieger article, which in turn linked to a WSJ article which shared several graphics detailing the top donors in the 2016 election, and campaign funding totals. Even a cursory glance will reveal who is getting the majority of funds, and who the richest donors have donated to. Importantly, it all leads back to the same conclusion – Hillary’s staunchest support and source of funds comes from a small group of billionaires, millionaires, and special interest groups. And her overall campaign war chest dwarfs Trump’s as a result. Of course, Trump’s lack of funds from the same rich elites is one of the principle reasons I decided to vote for Trump in the first place, but the overall difference between the candidates is shocking.
They are laughing… at you… all the way to the bank
Recently Irish bookmaker Paddy Power made headlines when it stated that Hillary “is a nailed-on certainty to occupy the Oval Office”, and agreed to pay out over $1 million dollars in bets already placed at the book for her to win. Of course, they made sure to tell the whole world about what they did, and in a press release, they also stated the following:
Its been awhile since we’ve had an analysis on the Presidential election odds and the movements on these odds in the Betfair market. And there hasn’t been an update because… quite frankly, since the last update, there hasn’t been much to report. The odds have, for the most part, flip-flopped between 15-20% for Trump, with the inverse (80-85%) going to Hillary, with a less than 1% probability for win designated to the remaining “field” of candidates. However that all changed over the past few days, as even more Wikileaks from John Podesta’s emails have been released, early ballots are beginning to be counted, and Trump started soaring in the polls. Once again, the odds are on the move.
However, this time, with an odds analysis, I will be including a “market analysis” as well. Recently, I read a ZeroHedge article which detailed how certain markets, notably the S&P Index and US Dollar Index, will need to move to imply a Trump presidency. Notably, they stated the following: “S&P needs to hit 2,000; 30Y yields top 2.50%, and/or USD Index weakness is all that is needed for markets to imply a Trump win”. With this in mind, we will revisit the Presidential election odds on Betfair for the final time (barring an unforeseen development between now and Election Day), with an eye on how capital markets will react to the election’s result.